Flutter Entertainment has lowered its 2024 financial outlook due to unprecedented customer-friendly NFL betting outcomes. The company now projects revenue of $5.78 billion, down from its previous forecast of $6.05-6.25 billion, with EBITDA expected to be $205 million below the earlier $505 million midpoint estimate.

The adjustment stems from the 2024/2025 NFL season delivering the highest rate of favorites winning in nearly 20 years, with favorites winning 71.8% of games through December 31, 2024. Favorites have covered the spread at almost 54% - the highest since 2017 and seventh-highest in the Super Bowl era.

Despite lower fourth-quarter projections of $161 million EBITDA on $1.59 billion in sales, Flutter maintains strong performance in other markets. The company reports particularly good momentum in UK/Ireland, with favorable English Premier League results offsetting US challenges.

The company views these NFL-related setbacks as temporary and remains committed to its long-term growth trajectory. Flutter's September investor day projections remain unchanged, including:

• Global regulated GGR reaching $368 billion by 2030 (8% CAGR)
• 2027 revenue target of $21 billion (14% three-year CAGR)

Flutter continues its share buyback program, targeting at least $350 million in repurchases by the end of the current quarter, demonstrating confidence in its long-term outlook despite short-term challenges.

The company's diversified global presence, particularly in Australia and Europe, helps buffer against US sports betting fluctuations. UK/Ireland operations are now expected to exceed previous guidance by approximately 1% in revenue and 2% in adjusted EBITDA.

Related Articles

Previous Articles