Las Vegas Strip casino revenue growth is expected to slow in 2025, with analysts forecasting declines in both gaming and non-gaming revenue streams.

Deutsche Bank analyst Carlo Santarelli projects a 0.1% decrease in gross gaming revenue (GGR) and a more substantial 2.4% drop in net revenue, primarily due to weakening non-gaming sales.

Key factors affecting 2025 performance:

• Challenging Q1 comparisons due to 2024 Super Bowl impact
• Expected modest contraction in slot revenue
• Low single-digit decline in non-baccarat table games
• Low double-digit decrease in baccarat revenue
• RevPAR (Revenue Per Available Room) compression in low to mid-single digits

Major operators MGM Resorts International and Caesars Entertainment, already down 21% and 22.18% respectively year-to-date, may face continued pressure due to these headwinds.

Property closures at the Mirage and Tropicana, along with planned MGM Grand renovations, are not expected to significantly impact overall Strip supply and demand dynamics. However, slot handle rates show promise, potentially offering some stability in that segment despite challenging comparisons in the second half of 2025.

Table games hold is anticipated to remain stable with a slight downward bias, while RevPAR is projected to experience its first contraction in years during Q4 2024, with further compression expected throughout 2025.

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